ethnic tensions in Ethiopia — Eritrea recently accused Ethiopia of making preparations for a bigger military offensive and is contemplating a full scale war. But since then, the political dynamics within Ethiopia deteriorated as growing ethnic division and conflicts threatened the regime’s grip to power, let alone sustain an escalation of conflict with Eritrea.

By Nathan Birhanu,

The June 2016 border clash between Ethiopia and Eritrea reflected renewed tensions between the two countries that have been mutually hostile since their 1998 – 2000 war. Shortly after the clash, tensions escalated as Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalgn claimed further retaliation will be administered if “destabilizing efforts” continued, while Eritrea accused the Ethiopian administration of human rights abuses.

However, recent developments are promoting a welcome de-escalation, reducing the likelihood of continued fighting.

First, in July 2016, Ethiopia was elected to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a non-permanent member for the next two years. Considered the most powerful body of the UN, the UNSC can authorize military action, impose international sanctions, and mandate peace keeping operations. Ethiopia had been actively lobbying for the seat, not least because election enhances the prestige of the Addis government.

Second, also early in July 2016, Eritrea allowed a consignment of food aid from the UN World Food Program (WFP) to transit its port of Massawa for humanitarian relief operations in South Sudan. The cargo was the first to pass through Eritrea’s port in a decade. WFP used Massawa to avoid the congested port in Djibouti, thereby accelerating the flow of aid to a humanitarian disaster area.

Finally, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (Commission) in June 2016 released a scathing report on Eritrea, detailing rampant human rights abuses by Asmara.

Taken together, these three developments appear to have encouraged a certain stabilization. Ethiopia had previously served on the UNSC in 1967 and 1989, well before the establishment of the current regime in 1993, now led by Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn. The prime minister likely wants to avoid compromising his bolstered international reputation by instigating conflict with Asmara at the border. Ethiopia will take its seat on the UNSC in January 2017.

The potential influence of Ethiopia on the UNSC is not lost on Eritrea. On July 1, 2016, the UN Human Rights Council (Council) passed a resolution requesting that the UN General Assembly submit the Commission’s report on Eritrea’s human rights abuses to the “relevant organs of the UN for consideration and urgent action.”

Earlier drafts had explicitly designated the UNSC, but several countries objected, including the United States and China.

Eritrean Presidential Advisor Ghebreab Yemane has raised concerns that Ethiopia could use its seat on the UNSC to push for a resolution against Eritrea related to border issues.

“It is indeed ironic that Ethiopia, whose government is responsible for some of the worst human rights abuses and the brutal massacres of its people – Oromos and Ogadenis, Amharas and Gambellans, Afars and Tigreans and all other nationalities – is afforded the luxury of a seat in the Council […]”

By allowing WFP cargo to transit its major port, Eritrea is offering something of an olive branch to the UN and the international community. Despite the Council’s report, which Asmara denounces as false, Eritrea is signaling that it is willing to work within the established system, at least with respect to certain humanitarian crises.

EDITOR’S NOTE

Is TPLF raising the white flag?

The Ethiopian regime is currently in crisis as ethnic based conflicts and divisions, including in the army, started to challenge its grip of power in the country. In light of the growing isolation of the regime by the rest of the ethnic groups in the country, the minority Tigray-led regime realizes escalating armed hostilities against Eritrea will be determinantal to its very existence.

Here is TPLF’s Minister of Federal Affairs, Abay Tsehaye, basically saying war with Eritrea from now on is not in the interest of his regime so that they are not that stupid to confront Eritrea militarily at a time when they are faced with insurmountable challenges inside the country.

Nathan Birhanu is an intern for the Council on Foreign Relations Africa Studies program.